Quantitative risk assessment: How realistic are those frequency assumptions?

Although much has changed in recent decades in how the consequences are treated in risk assessment of major industrial accidents, estimation of frequencies still appears to be largely based on values from several decades ago. This paper reviews briefly some of the implications of this, drawing on lessons not only from the process industries but also from other not so obviously relevant fields such as aerospace and finance, where the significance of such factors such as organizational culture, normalization of deviance, ownership, demographic change, etc. is becoming increasingly recognized in the analysis and hence the control of risk.Failure to consider such factors and their effects can pose a problem, because risk assessment is not simply an abstract concept but can have a real influence on the level of risk. If protective measures such as the safety culture of the site, etc. can be shown to significantly change the risk zone, this can persuade the risk generator to improve those factors or take other steps to reduce the risk such as reducing the inventory in the process. Conversely, assessments conducted for well-run companies may misrepresent the risk if the site ownership changes to a financial holding company with a focus on maximizing short-term profit and resale of the assets, and it can be difficult even for well-motivated management to justify protective measures if they produce no apparent difference in the risk.This paper introduces these and other issues for consideration in the symposium which follows.     

Variation in plasma levels of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) in lingcod: relationships among season,size, and gonadal steroids

The physiological response of a fish to its environment is mediated through the endocrine axis controlling growth. Therefore, growth-regulating hormone levels can serve as ecologically relevant indicators of fish growth rate. We quantified variation in plasma insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) to evaluate its potential as an indicator of growth in lingcod, an economically and ecologically important bottomfish species in the northeast Pacific. An information-theoretic model selection approach was used to test the hypothesis that variation in lingcod IGF-I is related to season, body size, and gonadal steroid concentration. Season and a length × season interaction were the most important predictors of plasma IGF-I among the variables we evaluated, suggesting that season and body size should be explicitly accounted for when interpreting endocrine patterns in wild fish populations. This is among the few studies that have measured and interpreted patterns of IGF-I in wild fish and the first to describe seasonal endocrine profiles in lingcod.     

Stable isotope analysis in two sympatric populations of bottlenose dolphins <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tursiops truncatus</Emphasis>: evidence of resource partitioning?

Skin and muscle from 43 bottlenose dolphins (38 juveniles/adults, 5 calves) stranded in NW Spain were analysed to determine whether stable isotope ratios (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) could be used to assess dietary variation, habitat segregation and population substructure. Results were compared with published stomach contents data. Stable isotope ratios from 17 known prey species were also determined. Isotope ratios of the main prey (blue whiting, hake) varied significantly in relation to fish body size. Dolphin calves showed significant heavy isotope enrichments compared to adult females. Excluding calves, δ¹⁵N decreased with increasing dolphin body size, probably related to an ontogenetic shift in diet towards species at lower trophic levels, e.g. on blue whiting as suggested by stomach content results. Bottlenose dolphins were divided into two putative populations (North, South) based on previous genetic studies, and values of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N differed significantly between these two groups, confirming the existence of population structuring.     

Synchronous aggregated pseudo-copulation of the sea star <Emphasis Type="Italic">Archaster angulatus</Emphasis> Müller &; Troschel, 1842 (Echinodermata: Asteroidea) and its reproductive cycle in south-western Australia

Mass individual pairing or pseudo-copulation of the sea star Archaster angulatus was observed in November and December 2009, suggesting a late-spring/summer spawning period for this species on the west coast of Australia. Detailed measurements were made on the second of these occasions. Density of sea stars was 1.11 per m² and 68.5% were in mating pairs. Copulating pairs were mostly male on female, occasionally male on male. There was no difference in size between males and females in mating pairs. No evidence was found to indicate mating and spawning is coincident with lunar or tidal cycles. Females outnumbered males by more than 20%, but the difference in sex ratio was not statistically significant. Analysis of the reproductive cycle revealed that gonad indices reached their peak in October and declined from then until January. Histological sections of gonads confirmed that sea stars are in peak reproductive condition in October and November and are fully spent by January. Males have a much lower (ca. 1/3rd) gonad index than females when each are in peak reproductive condition, the second lowest recorded for any sea star. Pyloric caecae indices showed little annual variation and monthly averages of just 3–4% are among the lowest ever recorded for an asteroid. It is suggested that these characteristics are associated with the copulatory behaviour of the deposit feeding A. angulatus, enabling the species to maintain a high level of fertilisation success while also minimising the allocation of energy to gonad development in habitats with low or variable food availability. However, it is still difficult to explain why a species which ensures a high level of fertilisation by pseudo-copulation also does this en masse and synchronously. One hypothesis is that competition for males and the benefits of having eggs fertilised by multiple males favours both synchrony and aggregation.     

Physical and chemical properties study of the activated carbon made from sewage sludge

Preparation of activated carbon from sewage sludge is a promising way to produce a useful adsorbent for pollutants removal as well as to dispose of sewage sludge. The objective of this study was to investigate the physical and chemical properties of the activated carbon made from sewage sludge so as to give a basic understanding of its structure. The activated carbon was prepared by activating anaerobically digested sewage sludge with 5 M ZnCl2 and thereafter pyrolyzing it at 500 degrees C for 2 h under nitrogen atmosphere. The properties investigated in the present study included its surface area and pore size distribution, its elemental composition and ash content, its surface chemistry structure and its surface physical morphology. Furthermore, its adsorption capacities for aqueous phenol and carbontetrachloride were examined. The results indicated that the activated carbon made from sewage sludge had remarkable micropore and mesopore surface areas and notable adsorption capacities for phenol and carbon-tetrachloride. In comparison with commercial activated carbons, it displayed distinctive physical and chemical properties.     

Correlations between in situ denitrification activity and nir-gene abundances in pristine and impacted prairie streams

Denitrification is a process that reduces nitrogen levels in headwaters and other streams. We compared nirS and nirK abundances with the absolute rate of denitrification, the longitudinal coefficient of denitrification (i.e., K_den, which represents optimal denitrification rates at given environmental conditions), and water quality in seven prairie streams to determine if nir-gene abundances explain denitrification activity. Previous work showed that absolute rates of denitrification correlate with nitrate levels; however, no correlation has been found for denitrification efficiency, which we hypothesise might be related to gene abundances. Water-column nitrate and soluble-reactive phosphorus levels significantly correlated with absolute rates of denitrification, but nir-gene abundances did not. However, nirS and nirK abundances significantly correlated with K_den, as well as phosphorus, although no correlation was found between K_den and nitrate. These data confirm that absolute denitrification rates are controlled by nitrate load, but intrinsic denitrification efficiency is linked to nirS and nirK gene abundances.     

Solvent-Free Polymerization of l-Aspartic Acid in the Presence of d-Sorbitol to Obtain Water Soluble or Network Copolymers

l-Aspartic acid was thermally polymerized in the presence of d-sorbitol with the goal of synthesizing new, higher molecular weight water soluble and absorbent copolymers. No reaction occurred when aspartic acid alone was heated at 170 or 200 °C. In contrast, heating sorbitol and aspartic acid neat or with ammonium hydroxide gave a mixture of water soluble and insoluble copolymers of polysuccinimide and sorbitol. In the presence of phosphoric acid, sorbitol aspartate ester copolymers having both water soluble and highly swollen gel components were formed. These results indicate that polysaccharides such as sorbitol can readily react to form copolymer ester/amides with aspartic acid and such copolymers may have utility as biodegradable water soluble and swellable polyampholytes.     

Implications of differing input data sources and approaches upon forest carbon stock estimation

Site index is an important forest inventory attribute that relates productivity and growth expectation of forests over time. In forest inventory programs, site index is used in conjunction with other forest inventory attributes (i.e., height, age) for the estimation of stand volume. In turn, stand volumes are used to estimate biomass (and biomass components) and enable conversion to carbon. In this research, we explore the implications and consequences of different estimates of site index on carbon stock characterization for a 2,500-ha Douglas-fir-dominated landscape located on Eastern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We compared site index estimates from an existing forest inventory to estimates generated from a combination of forest inventory and light detection and ranging (LIDAR)-derived attributes and then examined the resultant differences in biomass estimates generated from a carbon budget model (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)). Significant differences were found between the original and LIDAR-derived site indices for all species types and for the resulting 5-m site classes (p?<?0.001). The LIDAR-derived site class was greater than the original site class for 42% of stands; however, 77% of stands were within ±1 site class of the original class. Differences in biomass estimates between the model scenarios were significant for both total stand biomass and biomass per hectare (p?<?0.001); differences for Douglas-fir-dominated stands (representing 85% of all stands) were not significant (p?=?0.288). Overall, the relationship between the two biomass estimates was strong (R ²?=?0.92, p?<?0.001), suggesting that in certain circumstances, LIDAR may have a role to play in site index estimation and biomass mapping.     

Quantitative assessment of medical waste generation in the capital city of Bangladesh

There is a concern that mismanagement of medical waste in developing countries may be a significant risk factor for disease transmission. Quantitative estimation of medical waste generation is needed to estimate the potential risk and as a basis for any waste management plan. Dhaka City, the capital of Bangladesh, is an example of a major city in a developing country where there has been no rigorous estimation of medical waste generation based upon a thorough scientific study. These estimates were obtained by stringent weighing of waste in a carefully chosen, representative, sample of HCEs, including non-residential diagnostic centres. This study used a statistically designed sampling of waste generation in a broad range of Health Care Establishments (HCEs) to indicate that the amount of waste produced in Dhaka can be estimated to be 37 ± 5 ton per day. The proportion of this waste that would be classified as hazardous waste by World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines was found to be approximately 21%. The amount of waste, and the proportion of hazardous waste, was found to vary significantly with the size and type of HCE.